The prediction explicitly sets a time horizon of “within a generation” (~20–30 years) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to see a dramatically improved economic situation from oil revenues invested in health care and education. That puts the evaluation window roughly in 2042–2052, far beyond the current date (late 2025), so the core outcome cannot yet be judged.

Some relevant facts so far:

• The DRC did launch a major auction for 27 oil and 3 gas blocks in July 2022, intending to tap large reserves and boost development. (energycapitalpower.com)
• However, in October 2024 the government canceled the licensing round for 27 oil blocks, citing late or irregular bids and lack of competition, with plans to restart the process later. (africanews.com)
• By 2025, the government is again moving to reopen or expand oil and gas auctions across large swaths of rainforest and peatlands, but this is still in flux and heavily contested, and there is no evidence yet of large, sustained oil revenues being cleanly channeled into health and education at a scale that would validate or falsify Chamath’s long-run scenario. (theguardian.com)

Because (1) the time frame has barely begun (only ~3 years into a 20–30 year horizon), and (2) the necessary preconditions (successful, corruption-free monetization of oil resources and large-scale, sustained investment of that revenue into health and education) are themselves still unsettled, it is too early to say whether the predicted generational transformation of the DRC’s economy and productivity will occur.

Therefore, the prediction’s accuracy is inconclusive (too early to tell) at this time.