Across Q3 2022 (July–September), broad institutional capital deployment and transaction activity fell further rather than picking up versus earlier 2022, contrary to the prediction.

• Global M&A: S&P Global data show Q3 2022 global M&A deal value at about $443 billion, roughly 50% lower than Q2 2022 and the slowest quarter since the early‑pandemic period, indicating dealmakers became more cautious, not more active. (spglobal.com)
• Venture capital/private markets: CB Insights and Crunchbase report Q3 2022 global venture funding of roughly $74–81 billion, about 33–34% below Q2 2022 and a nine‑quarter low, reflecting a pronounced pullback in private financing rather than renewed deployment. (news.crunchbase.com)
• Equity/IPO markets: 2022 became the weakest global IPO year since 2016, with H2 (including Q3) characterized by very low IPO proceeds and the lowest SPAC IPO proceeds since 2016, showing primary equity issuance remained largely shut instead of re‑opening in Q3. (pwc.com)
• Regional/sector nuance: While some niches (e.g., certain transportation and real‑estate M&A, and slightly higher APAC deal counts) saw modest quarter‑on‑quarter upticks, global deal value and risk appetite clearly declined further overall, not "starting to come back". (spglobal.com)

Because the realized data show that institutional transaction volumes and capital deployment in both public and private markets contracted materially in Q3 2022 compared with Q2 2022, the forecast that significant market participants would re‑engage and that capital activity would start to recover in that specific quarter is best judged as wrong.