As of November 30, 2025, no new technology company that emerged from the roughly $250 billion in VC dry powder available around mid‑2022 has grown to a $1 trillion+ public market capitalization.

Public members of the trillion‑dollar “mega‑cap” club in 2025 include Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, Broadcom, TSMC, Berkshire Hathaway, Saudi Aramco, and a few others, all of which are long‑established firms founded well before the 2010s and certainly before the 2020–2022 VC boom. (bankrate.com) A recent example outside core tech, Eli Lilly, also hit $1 trillion in 2025 but is a 19th‑century company, not a new VC‑backed startup. (barrons.com) There is no evidence of any startup founded or primarily funded in the 2020–2022 period that has reached a $1 trillion valuation by late 2025.

However, Friedberg’s statement doesn’t specify a clear time horizon; he says only that "one of the next trillion dollar mega‑caps" could emerge from that roughly quarter‑trillion of VC capital and, if it did, the industry "would look fantastic" and that company would "transform the landscape of some part of the economy." VC fund cycles and company‑building timelines are typically on the order of a decade or more, not three years, so by late 2025 it is still too early to say definitively that no such trillion‑dollar company will emerge from that capital.

Because (1) the necessary condition (a new VC‑backed tech company from that capital reaching a $1T+ market cap) has not yet occurred, but (2) the prediction has no explicit deadline and venture timeframes plausibly extend well beyond 2025, the status of the prediction is best classified as inconclusive (too early to tell) rather than clearly right or wrong.