On the episode dated 13 May 2022, the S&P 500 closed at 4,023.89, with recent lows in the 3,800s that week, so Chamath’s “3800‑ish” reference matches the then-current trading range.

How far did the S&P 500 ultimately fall?
• The 2022 bear‑market closing low was 3,577.03 on October 12, 2022, and the intraday low was 3,491.58 on October 13, 2022. (statmuse.com)
• That puts the trough roughly 6% below 3,800 on a closing basis and ~8% below on an intraday basis—well above the ~3,000 level he discussed as a theoretical valuation floor.

Time spent “significantly below” 3,800
The index did trade below 3,800 for stretches (notably mid‑June and late September–mid‑October 2022, with closes in the 3,600s and high‑3,500s), but by December 30, 2022 it had recovered to 3,839.50, back above 3,800. (indices.earningsahead.com) Those sub‑3,800 periods totaled a few weeks at a time, not a deep, multi‑quarter stay far below that level.

Did the market ever approach 3,000?
No. Across 2022 the S&P 500’s year low was about 3,577 on a closing basis, roughly 25% below its January 3, 2022 high of 4,796, never coming close to 3,000. (en.wikipedia.org) After that, the index entered a new bull phase, making new highs in 2023–2025 above 4,500, 5,000, and then 6,000+. (sec.gov)

Assessment vs. the prediction

• Core claim: "we're probably close to a near bottom‑ish here, 3800‑ish" – The actual bottom in the mid‑3,500s was only single‑digit percent below that level, which is reasonably "near" in macro terms.
• Scenario analysis: He said valuations could justify ~3,000 but expected a policy/market response (“Fed put somewhere in between here”) to prevent that. The realized low around 3,500 is indeed between 3,800 and 3,000 and never approached 3,000.

While the index did go modestly and temporarily below 3,800, the eventual trough and subsequent path line up with his main directional call: 3,800 was close to the cyclical bottom, and the feared move toward 3,000 never happened. On balance, that makes the prediction substantially correct.