Chamath’s claim (May 2022) that the venture and growth equity ecosystem would go through “a few years of sorting”—with portfolio triage, layoffs, down rounds, and restructuring before reaching a new equilibrium—matches what actually happened from 2022 through at least 2024–2025.

• Multi‑year funding and valuation reset, not a quick snapback.

  • Global startup funding in 2023 fell sharply: Crunchbase data shows 2023 funding down 38% vs. 2022 and at the lowest level since 2018, with large pullbacks across all stages. (news.crunchbase.com)
  • Carta’s 2023 private‑markets data shows down rounds near 20% of all venture rounds in every quarter of 2023, the highest rates since at least 2018, signaling widespread valuation cuts and portfolio triage. (carta.com)
  • In 2024, PitchBook/Reuters report that global VC investment in Q1 2024 was at a near five‑year low, despite some big AI deals—evidence the broader market was still in a downturn nearly two years after his prediction. (investing.com)
  • Full‑year 2024 PitchBook–NVCA data shows global VC investment (~$368.5B) still down about 51% in value and 37% in deal count vs. the 2021 peak—a prolonged comedown rather than a 1‑year blip. (gayello.com)

• Portfolio triage, down rounds, and crossover/growth pullback.

  • A 2024 analysis of 2023 global venture reports notes that late‑stage valuations "are down massively from 2021" and that crossover funds like Tiger Global slashed activity (from 194 deals in 2021 to 20 in 2023) and tried to sell positions in secondaries at steep discounts, a clear sign of painful portfolio cleanup and growth‑equity retrenchment. (vccafe.com)
  • Carta and other data sources consistently show an elevated share of down rounds through 2023, and regional reports (e.g., Israel) indicate record levels of down rounds in 2024—26% of capital raises for mature companies—confirming that valuation resets and restructuring persisted into a third year. (carta.com)

• Layoffs and restructuring over multiple years.

  • The broader tech and startup ecosystem—which overlaps heavily with VC‑backed companies—has seen continuous large‑scale layoffs from 2022 through 2025. A 2025 report citing RationalFX data notes over 280,000 global tech layoffs in 2024, and another tally shows over 62,000 tech jobs cut in the first five months of 2025, with companies explicitly “right‑sizing” and restructuring after the pandemic‑era hiring boom. (axios.com)
  • Sectoral data (e.g., the video‑game industry) likewise documents significant layoffs every year from 2022–2025, illustrating that workforce reductions and cost‑cutting have been a sustained, multi‑year pattern rather than a brief shock. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Evidence of a new, more disciplined equilibrium emerging by 2024–2025.

  • A January 2025 growth‑equity update from Rothschild & Co notes that after three years of adaptation—shifting from “growth at all costs” to growth with profits/cash flow—valuation expectations are now tempered and company quality is better, making the universe of VC companies “more investable.” It also shows VC fundraising for funds in 2023–2024 far below 2021 and describes ongoing consolidation around larger managers, consistent with a reset to a new structure and equilibrium. (rothschildandco.com)
  • PitchBook–NVCA’s 2024/early‑2025 commentary similarly frames the environment as a subdued but stabilizing market, with dry powder, AI‑driven mega‑deals, and cautiously improving exits, but still far from 2021’s exuberance—exactly the kind of “sorted out” but lower‑temperature equilibrium he anticipated. (privatemarketsinsights.com)

Putting this together:

• The adjustment clearly lasted multiple years (2022–2024 and into 2025).
• It involved exactly the mechanisms he described: portfolio triage (e.g., secondary sales, markdowns), elevated down rounds, and waves of layoffs and restructurings.
• By 2024–2025, data and commentary describe a more disciplined, re‑priced, and consolidated market rather than a continuing free‑fall.

Given the timing and the qualitative shape of events, Chamath’s prediction that the venture and growth equity ecosystem would endure “a few years of sorting” before reaching a new equilibrium is well supported by the evidence, so the prediction is right.