Available data from mid‑2022 through late‑2025 show no systemic or 2008‑style collapse in the overall U.S. real estate market, despite significant stress in some segments.

Key points:

• Home prices did not experience a 2008‑like crash. After the 2020–2022 boom, U.S. existing home prices largely plateaued or saw modest regional declines as mortgage rates spiked, but national price indexes (Case‑Shiller, FHFA) remained above pre‑pandemic levels and far above 2008–2012 troughs. Analysts repeatedly characterized the environment as a "housing slowdown" or "correction," not a systemic bust.
• Mortgage delinquency and foreclosure metrics stayed historically low. Even as rates rose and affordability deteriorated, serious delinquency and foreclosure rates remained well below Great Financial Crisis levels, largely because post‑2010 underwriting standards were tighter and homeowner equity was much higher.
• Banking system did not suffer a housing‑led cascade. The 2023 regional bank stresses (e.g., Silicon Valley Bank, Signature, First Republic) were linked primarily to interest‑rate risk and concentrated deposit bases, not to a wave of collapsing residential mortgages. Regulators and market commentary did not frame these as a repeat of the 2008 housing meltdown.
• Commercial real estate—especially offices—has been stressed but not systemically catastrophic. Rising rates and work‑from‑home trends produced sharp valuation declines and localized distress (notably in some downtown office markets). However, this has so far manifested as sector‑specific problems (refinancing stress, some bank/lender losses), not a broad‑based, economy‑threatening real estate crisis on the order of the 2008 nationwide housing collapse.

Given that by November 30, 2025 the U.S. has seen no major structural collapse of the overall real estate market comparable to the 2008 housing crisis, Chamath’s May 2022 prediction that "we don’t have an issue in real estate" in the sense of a 2008‑style systemic crisis is broadly borne out. The market cooled and certain segments (especially offices) have been under pressure, but the feared nationwide housing‑system meltdown did not materialize.

(Sources: aggregate reporting and data from Federal Reserve, FHFA, S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller, and major financial news outlets between 2022–2025 consistently describe a housing slowdown/correction and localized commercial‑real‑estate stress, not a systemic housing collapse like 2008.)