Evidence since 2022 shows that venture funds, especially post‑boom vintages, have materially slowed deployment and shifted toward multi‑year investment periods, aligning with Sacks’ prediction.

1. Deployment pace clearly slowed after the 2020–2021 boom

   • Carta’s analysis of >2,000 VC funds shows that 2022‑vintage funds were only about 43% deployed after two years, versus ~50–60% for 2018–2020 vintages at the same age, and that the second year of deployment for 2022 funds was the slowest of any vintage since 2017. (carta.com)
   • Independent analyses (e.g., IDC Ventures’ Market Pulse) cite the same 43% figure and describe 2022 vintages as having “sluggish capital deployment,” confirming that capital is being put to work far more slowly than in the 2020–2021 period. (medium.com)

2. Industry commentary now explicitly points to 3‑plus‑year investment periods

   • A 2024 climate‑funding analysis, using Carta data, notes that 2020 funds deployed ~60% of capital within 24 months while 2022 funds deployed only ~43%, and concludes that funds announced in 2023–24 are trending toward 3–4‑year investment periods—a direct confirmation that the “one‑year pace” of the boom has given way to a multi‑year cycle. (slideshare.net)
   • A 2025 overview of U.S. VC notes that the 2020–2022 fundraising surge left managers with substantial dry powder, and that weaker exits and LP pullbacks in 2023–2024 forced funds—especially large, established ones that now receive ~80% of capital—to invest more cautiously over longer periods instead of rushing into deals. (afurrier.com)

3. Fundraising cadence for big, traditional firms also lengthened, consistent with slower deployment

   • An analysis of U.S. venture fund cycles finds that during the 2020–2021 boom many firms raised new funds every 10–15 months, but by 2024 the median gap between successive funds had stretched to ~24 months (with most between 20 and 34 months). This doubling of time between funds is consistent with managers no longer deploying entire vehicles in roughly a year. (unlistedintel.com)
   • Carta’s 2025 fund‑performance data show that even rebounding 2023 vintages are only about 58% deployed after six quarters, still implying a multi‑year path to full deployment, not the near‑one‑year cycles seen at the peak. (linkedin.com)

Taken together, these data and commentaries show that the rapid one‑year deployment behavior of 2020–2021 has largely ended and that large, traditional venture funds are again operating on roughly three‑year (or longer) deployment cycles. That matches the substance and direction of Sacks’ prediction, so it is best judged as right.