Evidence from mid‑ to late‑2022 shows that U.S. consumers experienced exactly the kinds of financial pressures Sacks described, within the “next several months” after May 2022:

• Higher borrowing costs. After the Fed began hiking in March 2022, consumer borrowing rates climbed quickly. By September–October 2022, average credit‑card APRs had risen from about 16.3% in March to over 18%, with analysts estimating cardholders would pay roughly $20–21 billion more in interest in 2022 than they otherwise would have. Mortgage and HELOC rates also jumped several percentage points over the year, materially increasing monthly payments for new or variable‑rate borrowers. (cnbc.com)

• Increased reliance on credit. The New York Fed’s Q2 2022 Household Debt and Credit report showed total household debt up to $16.15 trillion, with credit‑card balances alone rising by $46 billion in that quarter and up 13% year‑over‑year—the largest such increase in more than 20 years. (resources.newyorkfed.org) By Q4 2022, credit‑card balances had climbed to about $986 billion, surpassing the pre‑pandemic peak. (nasdaq.com) This indicates households were leaning more on revolving credit as prices and rates rose.

• Falling real wages. BLS data show that real (inflation‑adjusted) earnings were declining over exactly this period. Real average hourly earnings fell 3.0% over the 12 months ending May 2022, and even by late 2022 they were still down roughly 1.7–2.8% year‑over‑year, with real weekly earnings falling even more because average hours worked also slipped. (bls.gov) That’s a clear “reduced real wages” hit to consumers’ purchasing power.

• Drawdown of savings / thinner financial cushions. The U.S. personal saving rate dropped to about 2.7% in June 2022—its lowest level in roughly 15 years—and remained very low through late 2022 (around 2–4%), vs. a pre‑pandemic norm near 7–8%. (cnbc.com) This shows households largely stopped adding to savings and were instead using income and prior savings (and, as above, more credit) to maintain spending.

• Consumers as a key macro weak spot. The University of Michigan consumer‑sentiment index fell to 50.0 in June 2022, the lowest reading on record since the survey began in the late 1940s, reflecting sharply worse assessments of personal finances and buying conditions amid high inflation. (reddit.com) Subsequent commentary through late 2022 and into 2023 repeatedly highlighted strained household budgets and very weak sentiment as a central vulnerability, even as labor markets and corporate profits initially held up.

There is nuance: aggregate debt‑service ratios and pandemic‑era excess savings meant the consumer sector did not immediately collapse into a deep consumption‑driven recession, and overall spending remained surprisingly resilient for a time. (congress.gov) But Sacks’ specific mechanisms—higher borrowing costs, more use of credit, and declining real wages materially hurting consumers within months of May 2022, making households the next clear area of economic strain after the market sell‑off—did in fact materialize on schedule. On balance, the prediction is best judged as right.