According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real U.S. GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1.6% in Q1 2022 (third estimate).(bea.gov) Subsequent BEA releases show that real GDP also decreased at an annual rate of 0.6% in Q2 2022 (third estimate).(bea.gov) The BEA’s own summary of the second estimate likewise states that real GDP decreased 0.6% in Q2 2022 following a 1.6% decrease in Q1 2022.(apps.bea.gov)

By the predictor’s explicitly stated technical definition—two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth—the U.S. was in a technical recession in Q2 2022. While the NBER did not later date an official recession for that period, the prediction was specifically about the technical criterion, which was met. Therefore, the prediction is right.