Chamath was accurately relaying Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger’s then-current guidance that the overall semiconductor shortage would “drift into 2024,” i.e., that industry-wide supply constraints would persist until at least that year.(cnbc.com)

However, with hindsight it’s clear that the acute global chip shortage largely ended before 2024:

• The period is now commonly described as the “2020–2023 global chip shortage,” indicating that the systemic, cross-industry imbalance between chip supply and demand is seen as having run from 2020 through 2023, not through 2024.(en.wikipedia.org)
• By early 2023, industry analysts such as Gartner were already projecting excess inventories and a surplus zone for semiconductors through 2023, with overall market revenue declining that year—characteristics of oversupply, not ongoing broad-based shortage.(gartner.com)
• A 2024 Capgemini study notes that the world had “largely recovered from the chip shortage of 2020–2023” by mid‑2023; remaining concerns in late 2024 were about resilience and future risks, not a continuing, generalized inability to obtain chips.(techrepublic.com)
• In autos—one of the hardest-hit sectors—Reuters and other reports in 2023 described chip supply as easing, with experts expecting the era of “millions of cars cannot be built” to be behind them by the end of 2023, even though some legacy nodes remained tight.(investing.com)

By 2024, there were pockets of tightness (e.g., certain automotive components, high‑end AI accelerators), but not a continuing, economy‑wide global semiconductor shortage of the type seen in 2020–2022. On that basis, the normalized prediction that global chip shortages would persist through at least the end of 2024 is best judged wrong.