Structure of the prediction. Sacks made a conditional forecast: if (a) the Russia–Ukraine war was still ongoing and (b) the U.S. went into a recession, then Biden’s job approval would fall into “Jimmy Carter territory,” i.e., roughly the high‑20% range. Gallup’s historical data show Carter’s worst approval at 28% in June 1979, which is the reference point for “Carter territory.” (news.gallup.com)

Condition (a): war ongoing – satisfied. The large‑scale Russian invasion that began on Feb. 24, 2022 has continued without a formal end; major fronts in eastern and southern Ukraine are still described as part of an ongoing Russo‑Ukrainian war. (en.wikipedia.org)

Condition (b): U.S. recession by late 2022 – not satisfied under the standard definition. While real U.S. GDP contracted in Q1 and Q2 of 2022, the economy returned to growth in the second half of the year and unemployment remained low. Analyses summarizing the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee’s view note that no 2022 recession was declared, despite the two negative‑GDP quarters. (americanhartfordgold.com) Because the accepted arbiter of U.S. recessions did not date a recession in 2022, the prediction’s key economic condition did not actually occur.

What happened to Biden’s approval anyway? Even at his lowest, Biden’s overall job approval never fell into the low‑ or mid‑20s. Gallup reports his personal low at 38% approval, below 40% but still well above Carter’s 28%. (news.gallup.com) Other pollsters’ lows (e.g., CIVIQS) put him around 30–32%, again above “Carter territory.” (breitbart.com)

Why the forecast is scored as inconclusive. The prediction explicitly tied a Carter‑level collapse in approval to a specific scenario: Russia–Ukraine war plus a U.S. recession. The war condition was met, but the recession condition—using the standard NBER definition—was not. Because the hypothesized scenario never fully materialized, we cannot empirically test whether Biden’s approval would have dropped into the 20s under those exact conditions. Even though, in reality, his approval bottomed out in the high‑30s to low‑30s, that doesn’t strictly confirm or falsify the conditional claim. Hence the appropriate judgment is “inconclusive” rather than clearly right or wrong.