Last updated Nov 29, 2025
economy
By the time the then-current Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle progresses (i.e., likely by end of 2022 or early 2023), the federal funds rate will reach approximately 3.0–3.5%.
you know you could see rates at three 3.5%. And that's going to impact a lot of stuff.View on YouTube
Explanation

Chamath made this comment on April 16, 2022, when the federal funds target range had only just begun to rise from the zero lower bound (it was 0.25–0.50% after the March 16, 2022 hike).(ycharts.com)

He suggested that as the then-current hiking cycle progressed, "you could see rates at three, 3.5%." By September 21, 2022, the FOMC had raised the target range to 3.00–3.25% (lower limit 3.0%, upper limit 3.25%), squarely within his predicted 3.0–3.5% band and within his implied timeframe of end‑2022/early‑2023.(ycharts.com) The Fed then continued hiking beyond that level (reaching 4.25–4.50% by December 14, 2022, and peaking around 5.25–5.50% in 2023), but that does not contradict his claim that rates would reach roughly 3–3.5% during the cycle.(ycharts.com)

Since the federal funds rate indeed moved into the 3–3.5% range by late 2022 as he anticipated, the prediction is best classified as right.