Let me make a prediction right now, if we're we're definitely headed into an economic slowdown. I don't know if it will meet the technical definition of recession, but very high... very high chance, I think, of recession. Like Thomas said towards the end of the yearView on YouTube
BEA data show that U.S. real GDP fell in Q1 2022 (-1.6% annualized) and again in Q2 2022 (-0.6%), giving two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP in the first half of 2022.(apps.bea.gov) However, GDP then grew in Q3 2022 (3.2%) and Q4 2022 (2.6%), so there were no consecutive negative quarters “towards the end of the year.”(apps.bea.gov)
On an annual basis, real GDP growth slowed from 5.9% in 2021 to 2.1% in 2022, confirming an economic slowdown.(apps.bea.gov) But the specific, testable part of the prediction was a high probability of a technical recession (two negative quarters) toward the end of 2022, which did not occur; the technical recession-style pattern happened in early 2022 instead.
Additionally, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee has not identified any U.S. recession after the brief COVID recession ending in April 2020, meaning there was no officially dated recession in 2022 at all.(nber.org)
Because the timing and condition he emphasized — a technical recession toward the end of 2022 — did not materialize, the prediction is best classified as wrong, despite being directionally right about a slowdown.