ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Sacks @ 00:14:12Right
economypolitics
By the second half of 2022, the US year-over-year CPI inflation rate will decline from its peak earlier in the year because of base effects, but cumulative CPI inflation over the first two years of the Biden administration (January 2021–January 2023) will total roughly 12–13%, and voters will still feel worse off, resulting in widespread negative sentiment toward the Biden administration going into the November 2022 midterm elections.
the main reason inflation is going to go down in the second half of this year is because inflation is measured on a year over year basis... So as we sort of lap last year's inflation rate, we come up against, you know, you're copying against A 7.8% number last year, so I don't think inflation's going to get any better. We're probably looking at roughly a 12% you know official two year inflation number. So in other words since Biden took over as president you're looking at probably 12 to 13% of total inflation as measured by CPI. And that is why even though the headline number will come down later this year, I don't think the American people are going to feel any better about the situation... there's going to be a lot of negativity going into the November election for this administration.View on YouTube
Explanation

Sacks’ prediction has three main testable parts: (1) headline CPI inflation would fall in the second half of 2022 from its earlier peak, largely due to year‑over‑year base effects; (2) cumulative CPI inflation over roughly Biden’s first two years would be in the low‑teens (~12–13%); and (3) voters would still feel worse off and be broadly negative about Biden heading into the November 2022 midterms.

  1. Inflation peaking then falling in 2H 2022
    U.S. CPI year‑over‑year inflation peaked around 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined through the second half of the year, reaching 6.5% by December 2022. (theworlddata.com) That matches his claim that “the headline number will come down later this year.” His emphasis on base effects as the main reason is an oversimplification (energy prices, supply normalization, and Fed tightening also mattered), but the observable part of the prediction—headline CPI falling in 2H 2022 from its earlier peak—is correct.

  2. Two‑year cumulative CPI inflation under Biden
    Using the BLS/FRED CPI-U index (seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100), the index was about 262.639 in January 2021 and 300.456 in January 2023. (fred.stlouisfed.org) That implies cumulative inflation of roughly 14.4% over that period, not 12–13%. Even using October or November 2022 (around the midterms) still gives about 13.5–13.7% cumulative inflation from January 2021. (fred.stlouisfed.org) So he underestimated the magnitude somewhat, but he was directionally right that the two‑year inflation total would be in the low‑ to mid‑teens and far higher than normal.

  3. Voters feeling worse off and negative toward Biden by the 2022 midterms
    Multiple late‑2022 polls show exactly the kind of sentiment he described:

  • A Bankrate midterm‑election survey published Oct. 31, 2022 found 43% of Americans said their personal finances were worse than when Biden was elected, versus only 18% who said better, and about seven in ten of those worse‑off blamed Biden at least moderately. (bankrate.com)
  • A Washington Post–ABC News poll conducted Oct. 30–Nov. 2, 2022 put Biden’s job approval at 41% approve, 53% disapprove, with more than four in ten saying their family’s finances were worse than two years earlier and fewer than two in ten saying better; Republicans held double‑digit advantages on the economy and on inflation/rising prices. (washingtonpost.com)
  • A Gallup poll Oct. 3–20, 2022 similarly found Biden at 40% approval and 56% disapproval. (news.gallup.com)
  • Analyses of the 2022 elections note that inflation and the economy remained top voter issues throughout 2022, with an October 2022 Monmouth poll reporting that 82% of Americans saw inflation as an “extremely or very important” issue and about seven in ten disapproved of Biden’s handling of the cost of living. (en.wikipedia.org) AP VoteCast summaries of the midterms likewise report that about eight in ten voters said the economy was in bad shape and a slim majority blamed Biden’s policies for high inflation. (miningjournal.net)

Taken together, these data show that by late 2022 inflation had indeed come off its peak but remained high, cumulative price increases over Biden’s first two years were in the low‑to‑mid‑teens (somewhat higher than Sacks’ 12–13% estimate), and voters widely felt worse off and held strongly negative views of Biden’s economic management heading into the midterms. Because the main structure and implications of his prediction played out as he described—despite his numeric under‑estimate of the exact two‑year inflation total—the forecast is best classified as right overall, with minor quantitative error.