As of December 1, 2025, Twitter (now X) was acquired by Elon Musk in October 2022 and taken private; it was not acquired by Apple, Meta/Facebook, Google, ByteDance, or Amazon, and there is no public record that any of these companies formally attempted to acquire Twitter and were blocked by regulators.

Because Chamath’s prediction is essentially counterfactual and open‑ended (these firms “can never get it done” due to regulators), it would be validated only if:

1. One of these companies successfully acquires Twitter/X (showing the prediction was wrong), or
2. We had clear evidence that one of them tried and was blocked on antitrust grounds (partially right about feasibility), or
3. A reasonable, explicit time horizon passed where we could say the opportunity window definitively closed.

None of these conditions are met. The actual buyer was Musk, not a big tech platform, and regulators were not tested on an Apple/Meta/Google/ByteDance/Amazon–Twitter deal. So the prediction hasn’t been falsified, but also hasn’t been strongly confirmed—it remains consistent with what happened but not directly tested.

Therefore the correct assessment with current evidence is ambiguous rather than clearly right or wrong.