Chamath’s prediction, in substance, was that no higher competing bid for Twitter would materialize against Elon Musk’s April 2022 offer.

What actually happened:

• On April 25, 2022, Twitter entered into a definitive merger agreement to be acquired by an entity wholly owned by Elon Musk for $54.20 per share in cash (about $44 billion).(cnbc.com)
• The merger agreement included no‑shop provisions (Twitter could not solicit alternative bids) but did contain a fiduciary out allowing the board to consider and engage with any unsolicited superior proposal if one appeared.(secform4.com)
• Despite the deal being public and markets/speculators actively watching, no alternative buyer ever emerged with a superior offer; contemporaneous reporting noted there was “no white knight with a better offer.”(fortune.com)
• The original deal ultimately closed on October 27, 2022, at the same $54.20 per share price, and Twitter was delisted from the stock exchange.(theguardian.com)

Technically, Twitter did not run a formal, broad go‑shop process; instead it agreed to a standard no‑shop with a fiduciary out. However, because the key factual question behind Chamath’s prediction—whether any higher bid would appear—was answered in the negative, his underlying forecast that no superior competing offer would emerge was borne out by events. Hence the prediction is best scored as right, with the caveat that the literal go‑shop condition did not occur.