Board / poison pill outcome:

• Twitter’s board adopted a poison pill (shareholder rights plan) on April 15, 2022, in response to Musk’s bid, but the plan was explicitly structured so it would not prevent the board from accepting a future acquisition offer it approved. (cnbc.com)
• On April 25, 2022—within 10 days of April 16—the board unanimously accepted Elon Musk’s offer to acquire Twitter for $54.20 per share in cash, signing a definitive merger agreement that would give Musk control of the company. (cnbc.com)
• The acquisition ultimately closed on October 27, 2022, with Musk taking Twitter private, confirming that the poison pill did not “win” in the sense of permanently blocking his control; it served as leverage but was effectively set aside once the deal was agreed. (en.wikipedia.org)

Stock-price path within 30 days:

• The 30‑day window after April 16, 2022 runs to May 16, 2022.
• A Bloomberg report on May 16, 2022 notes that Twitter shares fell 8.2% that day to close at $37.39, below the $39.31 closing price on April 1 (pre‑stake disclosure), but not back to the roughly $35 level Sacks described. (bloomberg.com)
• Monthly price data show Twitter averaged about $49.02 in April 2022 and $39.60 in May 2022, again indicating the stock sagged but did not return to the mid‑$30s level in that 30‑day period. (digrin.com)

Assessment: Sacks’ scenario was that the poison pill would prevail and Musk would be blocked, with Twitter’s stock “back in the dumps” around $35 within 30 days of April 16, 2022. In reality, the board quickly agreed to sell Twitter to Musk at a substantial premium and he went on to acquire full control. While the stock did decline later in May, it did not cleanly revert to the ~$35 starting level, and the governance outcome was the opposite of what he predicted. Therefore the prediction is wrong.