Sacks’ prediction was conditional: if Twitter’s board rejected Elon Musk’s $54.20/share offer in April 2022, the stock would fall back to roughly its pre‑offer level (mid‑$30s to ~$40) shortly thereafter.

What actually happened:

1. Pre‑offer trading level. Twitter closed at about $39.31 on April 1, 2022, the last trading day before Musk’s stake was disclosed, consistent with the “high‑30s/around $40” baseline Sacks referenced. (chartexchange.com)
2. Board’s initial response. On April 15, 2022, Twitter’s board adopted a poison pill rights plan in response to Musk’s bid, which analysts and the company itself described as a defensive measure that did not constitute a formal rejection but was meant to fend off a hostile takeover and buy time. (cnbc.com)
3. Board ultimately accepted the offer. On April 25, 2022, Twitter announced it had entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Musk for $54.20 per share, meaning the board accepted the same price Sacks was discussing rather than rejecting it. (cnbc.com)
4. Stock behavior in April 2022. Around and after the poison pill, Twitter’s stock traded mostly in the mid‑ to high‑$40s (e.g., up to ~$48.51 on April 18) and did not drop back to the mid‑30s during that period; the average April 2022 price was about $49.02. (stockinvest.us)
5. Later scare when the deal looked likely to fail. When Musk announced his intention to terminate the deal on July 8, 2022, Twitter’s stock did fall to about $36.86 (and ~$34.61 after hours), near its pre‑offer trading range, but this was months later and tied to Musk’s termination attempt, not an April 2022 board rejection. (fortune.com)

Because the key condition he specified (“if they turn down this proposal” in April 2022) never actually occurred—the board instead accepted the offer at $54.20—the prediction remains a counterfactual. Even though we have plenty of time and data, we cannot directly observe what would have happened to Twitter’s share price under the exact scenario Sacks described. Therefore, the correctness of the prediction cannot be determined from real‑world outcomes, and the appropriate classification is “ambiguous.”