Parts of the scenario were accurate, but a key element did not occur:

• Board fights the takeover: After Musk’s unsolicited bid on April 14, 2022, Twitter’s board unanimously adopted a shareholder‑rights “poison pill” specifically to fend off a potential hostile takeover, i.e., they initially tried to block or resist the deal. (forbes.com)
• Stock drops and skepticism about the deal: Twitter’s stock traded well below the $54.20 offer almost from the start, reflecting investor doubt the deal would close on agreed terms. For example, it traded around $45 rather than $54.20 right after the bid, and later, amid Musk’s attempts to put the deal “on hold” and walk away, the stock fell into the $30s—over 30% below the offer—while analysts openly questioned whether the acquisition would ever be completed. (cnbc.com)
• Market belief the deal might fail: Coverage at the time repeatedly noted that the trading discount and analyst commentary signaled a significant perceived chance that Musk would walk away and the deal would not close, matching the "nobody thinks it's going to get done" spirit of the prediction. (washingtonpost.com)
• Elon lowers his offer: This is the critical miss. Musk publicly floated the idea that Twitter should be bought at a lower price and analysts discussed the possibility of a renegotiated, cheaper deal, but the merger agreement was never amended; there was no formal, binding reduction in the $54.20 per‑share price. (washingtonpost.com)
• Acquisition by end of 2022: After months of litigation threats and Musk’s attempt to terminate, he ultimately closed the acquisition of Twitter on October 27, 2022, at the original price of $54.20 per share (about $44 billion), i.e., he did complete the takeover before the end of 2022. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because the prediction explicitly required Musk to lower his offer before winning the company, and in reality he closed at the original price, the overall prediction is best judged as wrong, despite getting the timing and some intermediate dynamics roughly right.