Over the ~18‑month window from about April 2022 to October 2023, the venture market shifted sharply away from 2020–2021’s founder‑friendly environment toward investor‑driven, market‑price terms for most startups.

Key evidence:

• Sharp rise and persistence of down rounds. Carta data show that down rounds were only about 5.2% of financings in Q1 2022 but climbed to roughly 18–20% of all rounds through 2023, marking the highest quarterly down‑round rates since at least 2018 and a sustained period where nearly one in five rounds reset valuations downward. (carta.com) This is consistent with founders being unable to dictate prior (2021‑style) terms and instead accepting market‑clearing valuations.

• Power shift to investors and tougher deal terms. TechCrunch, summarizing Carta’s Q1 2023 data, reported that down rounds nearly quadrupled year‑over‑year to about 18.7% of deals and explicitly noted that power had shifted back to VCs. It also found investor‑friendly terms—such as participating preferred stock and stronger liquidation preferences—“spiked sharply” versus late 2022, indicating investors were imposing stricter structures rather than conceding to founder‑friendly terms. (techcrunch.com)

• Silicon Valley deal terms becoming more investor‑friendly. A 2023 analysis describing the venture environment as “so investor‑friendly” notes that high rates and inflation forced startups to "relent to less‑friendly deal terms," with the balance of power swinging to investors. Fenwick & West’s Silicon Valley data, cited there, show pay‑to‑play provisions in financings jumping to their highest level since at least early 2021, another sign founders had to accept harsher, market‑driven conditions. (moonfare.com)

• Private markets characterized as selective and investor‑driven. PitchBook/San Francisco Business Times data for Q2 2023 show around 14% of U.S. VC deals were down rounds, nearly double the prior quarter and the highest growth rate for down rounds in a decade, with commentary that private markets had become more selective and investor‑friendly, putting founders under pressure to extend runway and accept what capital they could get. (svproptech.com)

• Broader commentary on a prolonged funding downturn. Other analyses describe a cooling investor climate that began in late 2022 and continued through 2023, with about 20% of U.S. venture deals in Q1 2023 being down rounds and many founders resorting to bridge financing or accepting lower valuations. (duetpartners.com) The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023 further tightened conditions for startup financing and venture debt. (en.wikipedia.org)

While some exceptional companies—especially in hot areas like AI—still raised on founder‑friendly terms, the general environment for founders, particularly in tech and Silicon Valley, was an extended period in which raising capital typically meant accepting investor‑driven, market‑reset terms (lower valuations, more structure, and stricter preferences). That matches Chamath’s prediction of an ~18‑month stretch where founders "cannot raise money on [their] terms" and instead must raise on market terms, so the prediction is judged right in substance.