Friedberg @ 01:06:10Wrong
conflicteconomyhealth
Around nine months after April 2022 (i.e., roughly January 2023), a significant global famine will begin, driven by the Ukraine war’s impact on fertilizer, acreage, and food supply chains.
for fear of the famine that's about to hit us in about nine months.View on YouTube
Explanation
Nine months after April 2022 is roughly January 2023. By that time, international agencies were warning of and measuring a global food crisis and rising acute food insecurity, not the onset of a clearly defined, world‑wide famine.
- The technical standard for famine (IPC Phase 5) requires extreme food deprivation, very high child malnutrition and elevated mortality, and is declared for specific areas, not the whole planet. (en.wikipedia.org) In 2022–23 there were countries at risk of or experiencing localized famine, but no body declared a global famine or something equivalent.
- The Global Report on Food Crises found 258 million people in 58 countries facing acute food insecurity (IPC 3–5) in 2022, a very serious level that WFP and the UN described as a global hunger crisis and a “year of unprecedented hunger,” but still framed in terms of severe food insecurity, not a new, time‑stamped global famine event beginning in early 2023. (reddit.com)
- FAO analysts in mid‑2022 explicitly said there was no global food shortage, but rather a price and access crisis aggravated by the Ukraine war and energy costs—again distinguishing between supply‑adequate crisis conditions and outright global famine. (aljazeera.com)
- UN "State of Food Security" data show that global undernourishment hovered around 9–10% of the world population in 2022–2023 (roughly 730–760 million people), continuing a worrying upward trend since 2020 but without a sharp break beginning in January 2023. (lemonde.fr)
- The Ukraine war and fertilizer/energy shocks did drive food prices sharply higher in 2022, but the Black Sea Grain Initiative and other measures partially stabilized markets and brought global food prices down from their March 2022 peak by mid‑2023, even though prices stayed above pre‑pandemic levels. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Actual famine declarations after 2022 were localized: for example, Haiti (famine declared September 2024), parts of Sudan (famine confirmed or projected 2024–25), and Gaza (famine confirmed 2025). These crises are attributed primarily to local conflict, blockades, governance collapse and climate shocks, with the Ukraine war and fertilizer markets appearing only as background factors, not the dominant cause of a single synchronized global famine beginning in early 2023. (en.wikipedia.org)
So while the spirit of the concern—escalating global hunger and severe food crises worsened by the Ukraine war—was directionally valid, the specific prediction that a distinct, Ukraine‑driven global famine would begin around January 2023 does not match how events and official assessments unfolded. On that basis, it is best judged wrong.