Sacks @ 00:13:48Wrong
economy
The U.S. economy will enter a significant slowdown, with a high probability of falling into a recession or near‑recession conditions, within the next 12–24 months from April 2022 (i.e., by April 2024).
We're definitely going into a slowdown. And whether it becomes a recession to be determined, I think there's a very good chance...So these are all negative indicators. And I think we're either going to have a recession or something very close to it.View on YouTube
Explanation
Evidence from official data shows that the U.S. did not enter a recession or clear “near‑recession” conditions in the 12–24 months after April 2022 (i.e., by April 2024):
- The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee still lists the most recent U.S. recession as running from a February 2020 peak to an April 2020 trough, with no new recession dated after that as of 2025. This means there was no officially recognized recession in 2023 or early 2024. (nber.org)
- Real GDP did contract in Q1 and Q2 2022 (−1.6% and −0.6% annualized in the final estimates), but this “technical recession” episode occurred essentially immediately around the time of the April 2022 podcast, not mainly 12–24 months later. (bea.gov)
- After mid‑2022, growth resumed and stayed positive. For full‑year 2022 and 2023, real GDP grew 2.1% and 2.5% respectively, and quarterly growth in 2023 was solid—about 2.1% in Q2, then accelerating to 4.9% in Q3 and 3.4% in Q4. This is inconsistent with an economy hovering “very close” to recession. (apps.bea.gov)
- Labor‑market data likewise do not show near‑recession conditions by April 2024. The unemployment rate was very low by historical standards, rising only modestly from around 3.5–3.7% in 2022 to 3.8% in Q4 2023 and about 4.1–4.2% in 2024—still typical of a strong labor market, not a deep slowdown. (bls.gov)
- Contemporaneous economic commentary widely noted that the U.S. avoided the widely predicted recession in 2023, describing the outcome instead as a “soft landing” where growth slowed from the post‑pandemic boom but remained positive and inflation fell. (cnbc.com)
So while there was some cooling from the very rapid 2021 rebound and an earlier, brief GDP contraction in early 2022, the specific normalized prediction—that within 12–24 months of April 2022 the U.S. would be in a significant slowdown that was a recession or very close to one—did not materialize. The economy instead stayed in expansion with moderate growth and low unemployment through April 2024. Therefore, the prediction is best judged wrong.