Evidence from 2022–2023 shows that late‑stage private SaaS/software companies experienced exactly the valuation compression and financing difficulty Chamath anticipated.

• Sharp valuation markdowns in SaaS: TechCrunch reported that SaaS valuations fell ~75% from October 2021 to October 2022, creating a “perfect storm for companies needing follow‑on funding,” as exits collapsed and investors reassessed richly valued SaaS names. (techcrunch.com) An analysis of SaaS valuations similarly notes that companies which previously raised at 100x ARR might have to refinance near 20x ARR, with late‑stage investors “shunning the late-stage private financing market” because prior rounds were too expensive. (paddle.com)

• Late‑stage software/SaaS specifically flagged as most at risk: In April 2022, TechCrunch highlighted that late‑stage software/SaaS startups were “in the most valuation trouble,” as their revenue multiples had been bid up the most in 2020–2021 and were now retracing in line with public software stocks. (techcrunch.com) This directly matches Chamath’s concern that the repricing of public SaaS would spill over into late‑stage private SaaS.

• Severe late‑stage valuation resets in 2022: Carta’s 2022 data show that by Q4 2022, median valuations for late‑stage rounds had collapsed: Series D valuations were down 58% year‑over‑year and Series E+ down 72%. The median Series D round size was 79% smaller than a year earlier, and Carta describes late‑stage fundraising as “difficult,” with far fewer, much smaller deals at much lower valuations. (carta.com)

• Ongoing late‑stage funding trouble in 2023: Carta’s Q1 2023 update shows median Series D valuations down ~70% year‑over‑year and Series E+ down 82%, calling it “a difficult start to 2023 for late-stage startups hunting for new venture capital.” (carta.com) TechCrunch likewise described the “late‑stage venture market” as “crumbling,” noting median valuations for Series D+ rounds had fallen about 60% and that late‑stage deal counts were plunging. (techcrunch.com)

• Financing environment clearly worse for late‑stage SaaS: A TechCrunch piece focused on SaaS follow‑on rounds observed that venture investment fell 70% in Q4 2022 vs. Q4 2021 and that overvalued SaaS names, combined with a collapse in exits, were particularly hurting companies trying to raise extension and follow‑on rounds. (techcrunch.com) That is precisely the “trouble” Chamath was pointing to: not just paper markdowns, but real difficulty raising capital at prior valuations.

Across multiple independent datasets (Carta, Crunchbase, SVB) and SaaS‑specific analyses, late‑stage private SaaS/software companies saw large valuation markdowns, a spike in down/flat rounds, and a significant pullback in late‑stage capital in 2022–2023. This matches the substance and timing of Chamath’s prediction, so it is best scored as right.