On the podcast date (24 Feb 2022), the S&P 500 closed at 4,288.70 after the initial Russia‑Ukraine shock.(statmuse.com) Chamath’s claim was that there would be one last flush of roughly 400 points down to an S&P level "around 3800," and that this would effectively mark the bottom absent a world war.

What actually happened is that the index went materially below 3,800 and did not bottom there. Quarterly data from S&P/SEC filings show successive new lows in 2022: a Q2 low of 3,666.77, a Q3 low of 3,585.62, and a Q4 low of 3,577.03.(sec.gov) Daily pricing confirms that the S&P 500’s closing low for the cycle was 3,577.03 on October 12, 2022, with commentary and data series treating that October 12 level as the trough of the 2022 bear market, after which the index recovered and eventually moved into a new bull market.(statmuse.com) From the January 3, 2022 peak to the October 12 low, the S&P fell about 25.4%, which also aligns with independent analyses of the 2022 bear market.(ksat.com)

Because (1) the market’s ultimate bottom was significantly below 3,800, (2) the path to that bottom involved multiple legs and fresh lows well after the 3,800 area was breached, and (3) there was no world war that would have invalidated his conditional, the prediction that “around 3800” after one last flush would be the effective bottom did not come true.