Jason’s prediction was that Trudeau’s use of emergency powers and bank-account freezes against the convoy protest would “blow up in his face” in the near term—i.e., cause clear political backfire within about one to two years.

1. Immediate and short‑term public reaction (2022)
Polling around and after the invocation of the Emergencies Act shows more support than opposition:

• Multiple polls in February 2022 found majority support for invoking the Emergencies Act: Maru (66% support), Abacus (57–30), Research Co (66–28), and Nanos (63–36 even after the emergency was revoked). (en.wikipedia.org)
• An Angus Reid poll during the convoy found that while 65% of Canadians felt Trudeau’s conduct had worsened the situation, most also wanted the protests ended by force and backed firm action against the blockades. (angusreid.org)
• A May 2022 Angus Reid survey, explicitly about the Emergencies Act review, found a plurality (46%) saying invoking the Act was necessary vs 34% who said police already had enough powers, and only 15% opposed any government action. (angusreid.org)
  These data show controversy, but not the kind of broad backlash or collapse in support that “blow up in his face” implies.

2. Institutional/judicial judgments in the 1–2 year window

• The Rouleau Commission report (Public Order Emergency Commission), released in February 2023, concluded the Trudeau government met the “very high threshold” for invoking the Emergencies Act, while criticizing aspects of implementation (including the lack of a clear delisting process for frozen accounts). (en.wikipedia.org)
  That finding gave the decision a measure of legal/political legitimacy rather than turning it into an obvious scandal.
• In January 2024—about 23 months after invocation—the Federal Court ruled the use of the Act unreasonable and ultra vires, and held that the financial surveillance/bank freezes violated Charter protections against unreasonable search and seizure. (en.wikipedia.org)
  This is potentially damaging, but it comes at the very end of, or slightly beyond, the 1–2‑year window and is a legal setback more than clearly a mass‑opinion shock; the government immediately appealed, and there is no clear polling showing a discrete post‑ruling collapse attributable to this issue alone.

3. Trudeau’s popularity and political standing 2022–early 2024
Trudeau’s approval did erode in the 2022–24 period, but available polling ties this mainly to cost‑of‑living and general fatigue with his government, not specifically to the Emergencies Act:

• Angus Reid shows Trudeau’s approval around the low‑40s in late 2022, with a “bump” after his testimony at the Emergencies Act inquiry, then sliding to 37% in March 2023 and 36% by June 2023—lows for the post‑2021 period. (angusreid.org)
• By mid‑/late‑2023, multiple polls describe widespread dissatisfaction driven by housing affordability, inflation, health‑care concerns, and long incumbency; roughly three‑quarters of respondents were unhappy with his handling of housing and inflation, and about half said he should resign before the next election. (ipolitics.ca)
• Early‑2024 polling shows the Conservatives with a large, sustained national lead, with analysts again pointing to cost of living, housing, and general “everything is broken” sentiment as the core drivers of discontent, not the convoy or the Emergencies Act. (en.wikipedia.org)
  There were no major federal elections or near‑term electoral wipeouts directly following the Emergencies Act episode; Trudeau remained in office through early 2025 and only announced his resignation under pressure after years of accumulating economic and political problems. (en.wikipedia.org)

4. Overall assessment
For Jason’s prediction to be right, we would expect the emergency‑powers/bank‑freeze episode to trigger a clear, identifiable political blowback in the near term—such as a sharp, durable collapse in support specifically linked to that decision, or major electoral losses in 2022–23 clearly attributed to it.

Instead, the evidence shows:

• Public opinion on the convoy was hostile to the protesters and, on balance, supportive or at least accepting of invoking the Emergencies Act, including the associated financial measures. (en.wikipedia.org)
• A formal inquiry largely validated the government’s decision, and Trudeau even enjoyed a temporary approval bump afterward. (angusreid.org)
• Trudeau’s later unpopularity and his party’s polling troubles are consistently linked in reporting and polling analysis to inflation, housing, long time in office, and various scandals—not to a specific backlash over the Emergencies Act.

Because the central, causal claim—that the emergency powers and bank‑account freezes themselves would quickly “blow up in Trudeau’s face” politically—does not match the observed polling, institutional findings, or electoral outcomes in the following 1–2 years, the prediction is best judged wrong.