Justin Trudeau is no longer prime minister and did not lead his party into the next general election, matching the concrete part of Jason’s prediction that he would “lose” politically (e.g., lose his position or lose his next election).

Key facts:

• On 6 January 2025, Trudeau announced he would resign as prime minister and Liberal Party leader once a successor was chosen, and that he would not run again in his Papineau riding, citing collapsing support, internal party conflict, and recent political setbacks including by‑election losses and cabinet resignations. (theguardian.com)
• The Liberal leadership race concluded with Mark Carney elected leader on 9 March 2025, and he was sworn in as prime minister on 14 March 2025, replacing Trudeau. (en.wikipedia.org) In the subsequent 28 April 2025 federal election, Carney (not Trudeau) led the Liberals, who remained the largest party and kept government. (en.wikipedia.org) Thus, Trudeau had already lost his position before the very election that would have tested him next.

On the cause (“as a consequence of his handling of the trucker protests and Emergencies Act”):

• Polling in early 2022 showed his handling of the Freedom Convoy and Emergencies Act was politically damaging: a Nanos poll reported that 47% of Canadians said their view of Trudeau worsened over his handling of the convoy, versus only 20% saying it improved, leading analysts to argue the episode could inflict permanent damage on Trudeau and the Liberals. (thenationaltelegraph.com)
• Legal and political criticism persisted. Rights and civil-liberties experts warned that invoking the Emergencies Act risked serious long‑term consequences and overreach. (rightsprobe.org) In January 2024, a federal court ruled the government’s use of the Act “was not justified,” calling it unreasonable and rights‑infringing; Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and others used this decision to attack Trudeau’s judgment and leadership. (theguardian.com)
• Reporting on Trudeau’s 2025 resignation noted sustained declines in public support and accumulating political setbacks as the backdrop for his departure. (theguardian.com) While these problems were multi‑factor (cost of living, housing, broader fatigue, U.S. tensions, etc.), the convoy/Emergencies Act episode is widely documented as a significant blow to his popularity and a continuing line of attack for opponents. (thenationaltelegraph.com)

Because (1) Trudeau did in fact lose his position as prime minister before the next general election, and (2) credible evidence shows the Freedom Convoy/Emergencies Act episode contributed meaningfully to his longer‑term political decline (even if not the sole cause), Jason’s prediction is best scored as right. The causal link cannot be proved with scientific precision, but the observed outcome aligns with the prediction’s core claim that Trudeau would ultimately “lose” politically rather than emerge unscathed from that episode.