The prediction explicitly sets a 10–20 year horizon starting in 2022 ("over the subsequent decade or two"). We are only about three years into that window (late 2025), so by construction the forecast period runs roughly 2022–2032/2042, and has not elapsed yet.

Some early evidence is directionally consistent with the intuition:

• During the 2022 Canada convoy protest, the Trudeau government invoked the Emergencies Act, and dozens of bank accounts linked to protesters were frozen. Some supporters then turned to Bitcoin for donations, citing its resistance to government control, and the event sparked political debate about using crypto to circumvent state financial power. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Globally, crypto ownership has continued to rise. Triple-A’s 2024 report estimates that the number of cryptocurrency owners increased from about 420 million in 2023 to ~562 million in 2024 (about 6.8% of the world’s population, a ~34% year‑on‑year increase). (chaincatcher.com) This is clear growth in adoption of digital assets, including Bitcoin.

However, this does not yet let us judge whether, over the full decade or two, state actions like account freezes are a primary driver of a sustained acceleration in “off‑government‑chain” crypto adoption:

• Crypto ownership was already on a long‑term upward trend before 2022, driven by speculative cycles, technological development, and broader fintech adoption.
• Major 2023–2025 adoption catalysts highlighted in the same Triple‑A and media reports include regulatory changes and the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, macroeconomic concerns like inflation, and general market cycles—rather than specifically state account‑freezing episodes. (reuters.com)
• Governments have also expanded regulation and surveillance of crypto on‑ and off‑ramps over this period, which cuts against a simple narrative that crypto is moving cleanly “beyond direct state control.”

Because:

1. The forecast’s minimum time horizon (10 years from 2022) has not yet passed, and
2. The causal claim (that these kinds of state actions will be a key accelerator of global off‑chain crypto adoption) cannot be cleanly separated from many other concurrent drivers with current data,

it is too early to say whether Friedberg’s long‑term prediction has ultimately come true or failed.