Microsoft’s proposed acquisition of Activision Blizzard, announced January 18, 2022 for ~$69 billion, ultimately was approved and closed rather than being blocked on antitrust grounds.

Key facts:

• The deal faced scrutiny from multiple regulators, including the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC), the UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), and the European Commission. The FTC sued in December 2022 to block the deal, but a U.S. federal judge denied the FTC’s request for a preliminary injunction in July 2023, allowing the transaction to proceed in the U.S.
• The European Commission approved the deal on May 15, 2023, subject to certain behavioral remedies related to cloud gaming (e.g., licensing commitments), rather than blocking it outright.
• The UK CMA initially moved to block the deal over cloud gaming concerns in April 2023, but after Microsoft proposed a restructured deal transferring cloud streaming rights for Activision games (outside the EEA) to Ubisoft, the CMA cleared the revised transaction on October 13, 2023.
• Microsoft and Activision Blizzard then formally closed the acquisition on October 13, 2023.

Chamath’s prediction was that the Microsoft–Activision deal would “on balance [get] done” and that there was nothing fundamentally monopolistic that would lead to it being blocked. In reality, despite heavy scrutiny and some required concessions (especially in cloud gaming), regulators did not ultimately block the deal; it closed successfully after approvals and remedies.

Therefore, relative to the prediction — that the acquisition would receive regulatory approval and close, rather than being blocked on antitrust grounds — the outcome is right.