Chamath predicted in January 2022 that geopolitical and economic tension in the broader China–U.S. narrative would "continue to increase and swell" over the next decade or two (the 2020s into the 2030s). Since then, multiple indicators show tensions have in fact escalated: (1) the U.S. has repeatedly tightened export controls restricting China’s access to advanced semiconductors and chipmaking tools, and coordinated similar restrictions with Japan and the Netherlands, explicitly framing this as a strategic effort to constrain China’s military and AI capabilities, which Beijing denounces as Cold War–style "containment and suppression". (theguardian.com) (2) The chip and broader tech "war" has become a central axis of rivalry, with wider U.S. controls in 2023–2025 and Chinese counter‑measures including tighter export controls on critical minerals and rare earths, further weaponizing supply chains. (americanaffairsjournal.org) (3) Security tensions around Taiwan have intensified, with Taiwan announcing a special ~$40 billion defense budget through 2033 explicitly to respond to China’s "intensifying" threat, supported by the U.S., while Japanese statements about potential military involvement if China attacks Taiwan prompted Beijing to accuse Tokyo of crossing a "red line". (theguardian.com) These developments are directionally consistent with Chamath’s claim that tensions would swell. However, his forecast explicitly covers an entire decade or two, and we are only a few years into that window. Because the full time horizon has not elapsed, we cannot yet determine whether tensions will keep increasing for the whole period he specified. The best classification today is that the prediction is too early to fully evaluate, even though current trends align with it so far.