Chamath’s claim that the high‑growth tech drawdown was in the “eighth inning” by late January 2022 (roughly 80–90% complete, with most of the remaining downside playing out within 1–3 months) does not match what actually happened.

1. High‑growth tech proxies kept falling hard well past 1–3 months

• A common proxy for speculative/high‑growth tech is Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). ARKK peaked around $159.70 in mid‑February 2021 and hit an intraday low of about $29.43 on Dec 28, 2022, an ~82% peak‑to‑trough decline. (reddit.com)
• At end‑January 2022, ARKK’s monthly price was about $75.43, versus its later 2022 monthly low around $31–32; only about 53% of the eventual peak‑to‑trough decline had occurred by January 2022, with roughly half of the total damage still ahead. (digrin.com)
• Even by end‑March 2022, ARKK was about $66.29, implying only ~59% of the eventual decline had taken place by then; a large additional leg down occurred between April and December 2022. (digrin.com)

2. Broader tech indices also saw most of their decline after January 2022

• The Nasdaq Composite closed at an all‑time high of 16,057.44 on Nov 19, 2021 and reached a 2022 closing low of 10,213.29 on Dec 28, 2022, a drop of ~36%. (statmuse.com)
• On January 21, 2022, around when Chamath spoke, the Nasdaq closed at 13,768.92, only about 14% below the November 2021 peak. That means less than 40% of the eventual peak‑to‑trough decline had occurred by that date; roughly 60% was still to come. (statmuse.com)
• The index did not make its low within 1–3 months of January 2022; instead it continued falling and did not reach its closing low until late October–December 2022, about 9–11 months later. (statmuse.com)
• For 2022 as a whole, the Nasdaq Composite finished down 33%, underscoring that much of the damage happened after January 2022. (en.wikipedia.org)

3. Implication for the prediction

• If “eighth inning” means ~80–90% of the drawdown was already done, then remaining losses should have been relatively small. In reality, both high‑growth vehicles like ARKK and the broader tech‑heavy Nasdaq suffered substantial additional declines—often comparable to or larger than the drawdown already seen by January 2022.
• The timing was also off: new lows and the ultimate bottom arrived much later than the 1–3 month window implied by an “eighth inning” call.

Given the size and timing of the subsequent declines, Chamath’s statement that the tech drawdown was in the “eighth inning” in late January 2022 is best classified as wrong.