The outcome Chamath was worried about did not occur in the stated timeframe.

Key points:

• The prediction window is roughly late January 2022 through late January 2024 (“the subsequent couple of years”).
• The Federal Reserve did tighten very aggressively in 2022–2023, raising the federal funds rate from near 0% in March 2022 to 5.25–5.50% by July 2023, one of the fastest hiking cycles in modern history. (congress.gov)
• Despite this, the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee shows no new recession after the COVID trough in April 2020; its chronology lists April 2020 as the most recent trough and does not identify any later peak or recession, implying the expansion continued through and beyond 2022–2024. (nber.org)
• While real GDP was negative in the first two quarters of 2022, the Dallas Fed and others noted that broader indicators (especially labor markets) remained strong and concluded the U.S. likely did not enter a recession then; the “two negative quarters” rule was treated as a rough heuristic, not evidence of an actual recession. (dallasfed.org)
• Annual real GDP grew in 2022 and 2023 (about 1.9–2.5%), and again in 2024, indicating continued expansion rather than a contraction. (bea.gov)
• The unemployment rate stayed near multi-decade lows (roughly mid‑3% to low‑4% range) through 2022–2024, with the BLS and other analyses characterizing the labor market as historically tight rather than recessionary. (bloustein.rutgers.edu)
• By late 2023–early 2024, mainstream assessments (CRS, major banks, media) increasingly described the U.S. as having achieved or being on track for a soft landing—falling inflation without a recession or spike in unemployment. (congress.gov)

Because the U.S. economy did not enter an official, broad-based recession in the two years following January 2022, and the tightening cycle is widely viewed (so far) as having produced a soft landing instead of a Fed‑induced slump, Chamath’s concern that aggressive Fed tightening would “plunge the US economy into a recession” within that period turned out to be wrong as a prediction about realized outcomes.