Evidence shows that the core, falsifiable part of Chamath’s prediction came true:

• In the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Republicans won a narrow House majority, 222–212 over Democrats, ending Democratic control of the chamber. ​citeturn1search1turn1search12
• On November 17, 2022, after it became clear Democrats had lost the House, Nancy Pelosi announced she would step down from her leadership role and would not seek reelection as House Democratic leader in the next Congress, explicitly marking the end of her speakership once the new Congress began in January 2023. ​citeturn0search1turn0search4turn0search5
• In January 2023, when the 118th Congress convened, Republican Kevin McCarthy was elected Speaker of the House after multiple ballots, confirming that Pelosi had indeed lost the speakership and her position as the top power in the House. ​citeturn1search0turn1search12turn1search17

Chamath’s additional, more speculative rationale (that this would give President Biden political room to oppose Pelosi on issues like an insider-trading ban) is harder to test cleanly, but the concrete prediction about Pelosi losing her position of power after the 2022 elections was fulfilled. Therefore the prediction is right regarding its main outcome (Democrats losing the House majority and Pelosi ceasing to be Speaker).