Friedberg’s claim was that the post‑2021 startup downturn would not resemble a 2000/2008‑style crash where roughly a third of startups disappear and a large swath of marquee VC‑backed companies are wiped out (a ‘Sequoia graveyard’).

What actually happened 2022–2025:

• PitchBook data cited by multiple outlets shows that in 2023 about 3,200 VC‑backed startups failed, together having raised ~$27B. At the same time, there were over 55,000 VC‑backed companies operating in the U.S., implying failures on the order of only a few percent of the base in that year, not anywhere near one‑third, even allowing for undercounting. (linkedin.com)
• Carta and the Financial Times report that U.S. startup failures did spike sharply (e.g., 254 Carta‑tracked venture‑backed shutdowns in Q1 2024, with failure rates ~7x 2019 and a 60% year‑over‑year rise), but this is an increase in flow, not evidence that a third of the ecosystem has vanished. (ft.com)
• Sector‑specific data (e.g., travel & mobility tech) finds annual shutdown rates in the ~1.3–2.2% range over the past few years, with a noticeable 2024 spike but still low‑single‑digit percentages, again far below dot‑com‑bust‑type attrition. (tnmt.com)
• Funding conditions deteriorated substantially: U.S. startup funding fell about 30% to $171B in 2023 versus 2022, and global VC activity dropped sharply from 2021 peaks. (cryptopolitan.com) But by 2024, total VC investment rebounded nearly 30% to around $209B, with AI startups capturing a record share of that capital, signaling a difficult reset rather than a sustained systemic collapse. (reuters.com)
• In contrast, the dot‑com bust saw a majority of dot‑com startups disappear; only about 48% were still around by 2004, implying that more than half failed—a vastly higher wipeout rate than what we see in the 2022–2025 downturn. (en.wikipedia.org)
• As of January 2025 there are roughly 1,523 unicorns globally and 758 in the U.S., underscoring that a very large population of high‑profile, heavily VC‑backed startups remains; while some notable names (e.g., Convoy, Zume, WeWork’s bankruptcy and restructuring) failed, there has been no broad ‘graveyard’ of top‑tier VC franchises. (en.wikipedia.org)

Taken together, the data show a painful but selective shake‑out: elevated shutdowns, down‑rounds, and layoffs, yet far from a 2000‑ or 2008‑style extinction where a third or more of startups and a huge portion of marquee VC‑backed companies are wiped out. On that core point, Friedberg’s prediction that we would not see a crash of that severity has, so far, been borne out.