The prediction required two things to happen in June 2022: (1) Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) would launch a Democratic primary challenge against Sen. Chuck Schumer for his New York U.S. Senate seat, and (2) she would lose that primary.

Official records of the 2022 United States Senate election in New York show that in the Democratic primary, Chuck Schumer was the only listed Democratic nominee. The same source lists Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez among the figures who declined to run, not as a candidate. There is no record of her filing to run for Senate or appearing on the June 2022 primary ballot against Schumer; the filing deadline for that primary was April 7, 2022, and she did not file. (en.wikipedia.org)

Instead, AOC ran for re‑election to the U.S. House in New York’s 14th Congressional District and continued serving there; coverage of her House races and later elections treats her as the sitting representative from NY‑14, and notes that her Republican opponent Tina Forte had already lost to her in the 2022 general election. (election2024.nycitynewsservice.com)

Because AOC never actually launched a primary challenge to Schumer in 2022 at all, the core event described in Chamath’s prediction did not occur, and the attached outcome (“and she will lose”) also did not occur. Therefore, the prediction is wrong.