Evidence since late 2021 shows no swift disruption of the major card networks by Web3/crypto payment rails within a year (i.e., by end‑2022/2023), nor even by 2025.

1. Card networks grew rapidly instead of being disrupted (2022–2024).

   • Visa’s net revenue rose from about $24.1B in 2021 to $29.3B in 2022 (+22%), $32.7B in 2023, and $35.9B in 2024, while net income also climbed strongly over the same period. (macrotrends.net)
   • Visa’s total payments volume increased from $11.6T in 2022 to $12.3T in 2023 and $13.2T in 2024, with transactions processed on its network rising from 192.5B (2022) to 233.8B (2024). (annualreport.visa.com)
   • Mastercard’s gross profit likewise rose from $22.2B (2022) to $25.1B (2023) and $28.2B (2024), indicating robust growth, not erosion. (macrotrends.net)
     Strong, sustained growth in volume and profit is inconsistent with a swift disruptive hit to their core business within a year of 2022.

2. Cards remain the dominant consumer payment rails.

   • In global point‑of‑sale (POS) spending for 2023, credit cards accounted for about 27% of POS value (over $10T) and debit cards 23% (over $8.3T), together making up roughly half of all POS transaction value. Digital wallets were ~30%, but most wallet transactions (e.g., Apple Pay, Google Pay) still ride the Visa/Mastercard/Amex rails. (szzcs.com)
   • In the U.S., there were 942 million credit cards from Visa, Mastercard, Amex and Discover in circulation at year‑end 2024, usable at about 34 million merchant locations—figures that continued to grow. (finance.yahoo.com)
     These metrics show continued dominance of card networks rather than rapid displacement by Web3-native rails.

3. Crypto/Web3 payments grew but from a tiny base and did not quickly displace cards.

   • A 2025 analysis of merchant adoption notes that only around 5–10% of U.S. merchants actively accept crypto payments today, despite many expressing future interest. (coinlaw.io)
   • A separate study found that just 12,834 merchants worldwide accepted crypto payments in 2024—vanishingly small compared with the tens of millions of merchants that take cards. (nftevening.com)
   • Even in El Salvador, where Bitcoin was made legal tender and heavily promoted, surveys in 2022 found only ~20% of businesses accepting Bitcoin and just 14% having conducted any Bitcoin transactions; most users stopped using the official wallet after a one‑time bonus. (en.wikipedia.org)
     This is meaningful growth for crypto, but it is not the kind of broad, rapid merchant and consumer migration that would constitute swift disruption of Visa/Mastercard/Amex payment rails.

4. Rising stablecoin/on‑chain volumes have not yet translated into visible damage to card networks.

   • On‑chain stablecoin transfer volume has, in some years, matched or exceeded individual card networks, but analyses emphasize that much of this is trading/liquidity activity, not retail purchasing that competes directly with card rails. (reddit.com)
   • Over the same period, Visa and Mastercard have continued to post record revenues, growing card volumes, and large stock buybacks, indicating that whatever growth is happening in Web3 settlement has not yet shown up as a rapid, negative shock to their economics. (annualreport.visa.com)

5. Regulatory and competitive pressure is incremental, not disruptive.

   • Recent U.S. antitrust litigation led to a revised settlement trimming “swipe fees” and giving merchants slightly more flexibility, but it leaves Visa and Mastercard firmly in place at the center of card payments. (reuters.com)
     This is evolutionary pressure from regulators and alternative rails, not the kind of abrupt Web3-driven displacement implied by “this disruption happens swiftly.”

Taken together, the data show that by one year after 2022 (and even by late 2025), traditional card networks remain highly profitable, growing, and central to global consumer payments, while crypto/Web3 payment rails—though growing—are still a niche in comparison. That outcome contradicts Chamath’s claim that disruption of the card networks by Web3/crypto payment infrastructure would happen swiftly rather than slowly.