Chamath’s core claim had two testable parts: (1) that 2021/2022 marked the peak market caps for Visa and Mastercard, and (2) that a spread trade shorting those card networks while going long Web3/crypto payments would become extremely profitable.

1. Visa and Mastercard did not peak in 2021/2022

Data since then shows clearly higher prices and market caps:

• Visa’s market cap at end‑2021 was about $469B; by end‑2024 it had risen to about $617B, and by 2025 it’s around $648B, well above 2021 levels.(companiesmarketcap.com) In February 2025, Visa’s stock price hit a new all‑time high around $351.91, explicitly described as an ATH.(investing.com)
• Mastercard’s market cap at end‑2021 was about $352B; by end‑2024 it had grown to roughly $488B, and in 2025 it’s around $493B, again clearly higher than in 2021.(companiesmarketcap.com) In August 2025, Mastercard’s share price reached a new all‑time high near $595.01, with reporting noting a record market cap of $534B at that peak.(investing.com)

Because both Visa and Mastercard have set new all‑time highs in price and market value after 2021, the specific prediction that 2021/2022 represented their “peak market cap” is already falsified.

2. The spread trade thesis has not obviously played out in crypto’s favor

The total crypto market cap first exceeded roughly $3T in November 2021 at the prior cycle peak.(coincheckup.com) As of November 2025, the crypto market is again around $3.0–3.1T—comparable in magnitude, not dramatically higher.(coincodex.com) Over the same period, Visa and Mastercard together have increased their combined market cap from roughly $820B in 2021 to well over $1.1T in 2025.(companiesmarketcap.com) That is not the kind of clear relative collapse versus Web3 payments that would make a short‑cards / long‑crypto‑payments spread “the most profitable” trade of the era.

While some individual crypto projects have performed well, the broad picture is that the major card networks have grown in value and hit new highs, and the crypto market as a whole has not vastly outpaced them from the 2021 baseline. Given that Chamath’s prediction hinged on those 2021/2022 levels being the peak for Visa/Mastercard and on a strongly favorable relative move toward crypto payments, the observable data by late 2025 contradicts his thesis.

Conclusion: Because Visa and Mastercard have surpassed their 2021 market caps and achieved new all‑time highs, the “this is their peak market cap” part of the prediction is already wrong, regardless of the remaining years in the decade-long horizon. This makes the overall prediction wrong on the evidence available so far.