Chamath’s prediction was that in 2022 the progressive left of the Democratic Party would face a strong backlash from mainstream voters and end up as one of the biggest political losers of the year.

There was some localized backlash: in San Francisco, three progressive school‑board members were overwhelmingly recalled in February 2022, described as punishment for perceived left‑wing excesses, and in June 2022 progressive district attorney Chesa Boudin was recalled in a high‑profile race widely interpreted as a rebuke to progressive criminal‑justice policies. (en.wikipedia.org) Some commentary on the year also argued that progressive Democrats were “America’s biggest losers” and blamed them for Democrats’ House losses. (eurasiareview.com) In Democratic primaries, the number of Sanders‑style progressive insurgents fell compared with 2018/2020, and only one defeated an incumbent, suggesting diminished momentum. (washingtonpost.com)

But on the national 2022 outcome, the data point the other way. Democrats had one of the strongest midterm performances for a president’s party in decades, holding the Senate and gaining a seat while Republicans underperformed historical midterm expectations. (en.wikipedia.org) Post‑election coverage and polling repeatedly labeled Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans—not progressive Democrats—as the biggest losers of the midterms. (theguardian.com) Within the Democratic Party, the progressive “Squad” did not shrink; it grew from six to nine members after the 2022 elections (with Greg Casar, Summer Lee, and Delia Ramirez joining), and incumbents like Ilhan Omar, AOC, Tlaib, Pressley, Bush, and Bowman all won re‑election. (en.wikipedia.org) Research also finds that, even when progressive challengers lost, they helped pull Democratic incumbents leftward on policy and influenced major elements of the Biden agenda (e.g., climate and student‑debt relief). (washingtonpost.com)

Mainstream voters also supported several high‑salience progressive‑leaning positions at the ballot box: abortion‑rights measures passed in states like California, Michigan, and Vermont, while anti‑abortion measures were rejected in Kansas, Kentucky, and Montana; Missouri voters approved recreational marijuana legalization. (en.wikipedia.org) That pattern is inconsistent with a broad popular repudiation of progressive ideas.

Taken together, 2022 featured some notable setbacks for progressive officials in a few jurisdictions, but progressives were not generally regarded as, nor did they empirically function as, one of the year’s biggest political losers. Nationally, Trump/MAGA Republicans clearly fit that label better, while progressives maintained or modestly increased their representation and continued to shape Democratic policy. Chamath’s prediction therefore does not match the overall outcome.