National data show some Republican gains with both Hispanics and Asian Americans in the 2022 midterms, but not enough for these groups to become Republican‑leaning swing blocs as the normalized prediction claims.

• In the 2018 House elections, exit polls found Hispanics voting 69% Democratic / 29% Republican and Asians 77% Democratic / 23% Republican. By 2022, the national House exit poll showed Hispanics at 60% Democratic / 39% Republican and Asians at 58% Democratic / 40% Republican. That is a noticeable GOP improvement (about +10 points among Hispanics and +17 among Asians vs 2018), but both groups still clearly favored Democrats overall. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Catalist’s validated‑voter analysis likewise finds Latino support for Democrats in 2022 House races at roughly 62%, essentially unchanged from 2020, contradicting the idea of a wholesale realignment toward Republicans at the national level. (catalist.us)

• Other Asian‑focused data point the same way: an AAPI Civic Engagement Fund election‑eve poll found Asian American voters supporting Democrats 51% vs 37% for Republicans, and an AALDEF 2022 exit poll reported Asian American House votes at 64% Democratic vs 32% Republican. (aapifund.org)

• Summaries of the 2022 midterms note that Republicans did make gains among working‑class voters of color and among Hispanics, but still emphasize that Democrats continued to win a majority of these voters. (en.wikipedia.org)

Putting this together, Republicans did receive higher shares of the Hispanic and Asian American vote than in some recent cycles, but those groups remained Dem‑leaning overall, not "Republican‑leaning swing blocs" that "went for Republicans in big numbers" in the aggregate. The normalized prediction therefore overstates the shift and is best judged wrong, even though it anticipated the direction (some GOP gains) correctly.