Evidence shows that in 2022 the U.S. saw a large, measurable jump in reshoring and related manufacturing investment, and that most of the resulting facilities and jobs went to "rest‑of‑U.S." regions rather than to coastal hubs like California.

• Meaningful increase in reshoring (2022): The Reshoring Initiative’s 2022 Data Report found that reshoring + foreign direct investment (FDI) job announcements reached about 364,000 in 2022, a 53% increase over 2021’s record and the highest level ever recorded. (industryweek.com) Other analyses report a similar ~350,000 new reshoring/FDI jobs and tie the surge directly to efforts to shorten supply chains and reduce exposure to overseas—especially China‑related—risks. (engineering.com) Manufacturing construction spending in the U.S. also jumped about 40% in 2022 vs. 2021, reflecting a real build‑out of domestic capacity, not just announcements. (industrialsage.com) This clearly qualifies as a “meaningful” increase.

• Geographic shift to ‘rest of U.S.’ states: The same 2022 Reshoring Initiative data show that the South and Midwest accounted for about 76% of 2022 reshoring/FDI job announcements, with states like Ohio, Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina among the biggest winners—classic “rise of the rest” locations outside the traditional coastal hubs. (mhlnews.com) A separate breakdown (also based on Reshoring Initiative data) notes that in the 2022 results California did not rank in the top 20 states for reshoring/FDI jobs, while Texas was in the top 20 with roughly 10,600 projected jobs, alongside other Southern and Midwestern states such as Kentucky, North Carolina, Georgia, and Ohio. (centerforjobs.org) That pattern matches the prediction that new facilities and investments would disproportionately go to interior/Sun Belt states like Texas rather than to California.

• Caveat: New York as an exception: One nuance is that New York actually led all states in 2022 by share of announced reshoring/FDI jobs (about 12%), helped by very large semiconductor projects such as Micron’s planned multibillion‑dollar chip factory in Clay, NY, enabled by CHIPS Act incentives. (mhlnews.com) So the specific claim that investment would flow to “rest‑of‑U.S. states like Texas rather than to California or New York” was partly off with respect to New York, which turned out to be a major beneficiary.

Overall, however, the core of Sacks’s prediction did come true in 2022: reshoring surged to record levels and the lion’s share of new industrial jobs and facilities went to non‑California, largely Southern and Midwestern states, reinforcing the broader “rise of the rest” trend—even though New York emerged as an important outlier beneficiary.