Sacks predicted that the existing “rise of the rest” pattern—people and industry moving from high‑tax coastal states (e.g., California, New York) to low/zero‑tax states (e.g., Florida, Texas, Tennessee)—would accelerate in 2022 compared with prior years.

On the people/migration side, the 2022 data clearly show stronger flows into those low‑tax destinations than in earlier years:

• Florida – net domestic migration (people moving from other U.S. states):
  • 2019: +139,330
  • 2020: +174,645
  • 2021: +246,571
  • 2022: +314,467 (highest yet, and a ~27% jump over 2021) (beautifydata.com)
• Texas – net domestic migration:
  • 2019: +121,411
  • 2020: +162,299
  • 2021: +195,564
  • 2022: +222,154 (again higher than 2021, and far above pre‑COVID levels) (beautifydata.com)
• Tennessee – net domestic migration:
  • 2021: ~50,450
  • 2022: ~81,600–83,800 (Tennessee’s own data center notes 2022 domestic net migration was a record high and the main driver of its largest one‑year population gain since 2007) (tnsdc.utk.edu)

At the same time, sending states like California and New York continued to have very large net domestic outflows in 2022, well above pre‑pandemic levels:

• California – net domestic migration: 2019: −208k → 2020: −242k → 2021: −478k → 2022: −337k. Outflow eased from the 2021 peak but remained massively higher than 2019–2020, consistent with sustained population flight. (beautifydata.com)
• New York – net domestic migration: 2019: −184k → 2020: −204k → 2021: −300k → 2022: −296k, i.e., 2022 remained near a record net outflow. (beautifydata.com)

Census‑based analyses of 2022 population estimates also emphasize that the South was the only U.S. region with positive net domestic migration, led numerically by Texas and Florida, and that Tennessee’s record net domestic migration was a key driver of its growth. (tnsdc.utk.edu) This is exactly the pattern Sacks described: people leaving coastal/high‑tax states and accumulating in low‑tax southern states.

On the industry/firms side, detailed firm‑migration statistics lag and are best documented through 2021 (which already showed strong net firm gains in Florida, Texas, and Tennessee), so it’s harder to quantify an additional acceleration in 2022 specifically. (bls.gov) However, there is no sign of a reversal; instead, reporting and corporate announcements through and after 2022 continue to show relocations and expansions into these same low‑tax states, consistent with the broader “people + industry” narrative.

Putting this together: domestic migration into Florida, Texas, and Tennessee did grow further in 2022 relative to 2021 and pre‑pandemic years, while outflows from California and New York remained historically high. Regional data point to the South as the sole net domestic migration winner, led by exactly the types of low‑tax states Sacks named. That matches his claim that the trend “was going to keep getting bigger next year” and “pick up steam.”

Given the strong, quantifiable acceleration in people migration and at least continued strength (with no evident reversal) in industry relocation, the prediction is best judged as right.