Key parts of Jason’s prediction did not materialize in 2022.

1. Economy did not “boom”
   • Real U.S. GDP grew 2.1% in 2022, sharply down from 5.9% in 2021 – solid growth, but not typically described as a boom. (bea.gov)
   • Inflation averaged about 8.0% in 2022 and peaked at 9.1% in June, the highest since the early 1980s, creating a widely described cost‑of‑living crisis. (theworlddata.com)
   • Financial markets were very weak: the S&P 500 returned around −18% to −19.6% in 2022, its worst year since 2008, which is inconsistent with a “booming” economic environment. (spglobal.com)
   • The labor market was strong (unemployment averaged about 3.6% and returned to its pre‑pandemic level) but this was overshadowed by high inflation and falling asset prices. (bls.gov)

2. 2022 was not experienced as a broadly “great year” by Americans
   • Public mood and economic confidence were poor. In September 2022, Gallup data showed 79% of Americans dissatisfied with “the way things are going in the U.S.,” with only 21% satisfied. (gopusa.com)
   • Inflation and the high cost of living were repeatedly cited by Americans as the top national and personal financial problems in 2022, with majorities saying they worried “a great deal” about inflation and the economy. (news.gallup.com)
   These metrics and perceptions are hard to reconcile with the claim that 2022 would simply be “a great year” for the U.S.

3. U.S. influence and “exceptionalism” did not clearly “soar”
   • Internationally, views of the U.S. in 2022 were generally favorable and better than during the Trump years, but confidence in President Biden and in the U.S. slipped from 2021 levels; Pew described international public opinion of the U.S. as positive but not sharply rising. (pewresearch.org)
   • Among Americans themselves, a June 2022 Pew survey found that 47% said U.S. influence in the world had been getting weaker in recent years, versus only about 20% who said it was getting stronger, indicating that the domestic narrative of American decline persisted rather than being overturned. (pewresearch.org)

Overall, 2022 featured low unemployment and continued recovery, but also historic inflation, a bear market, and deep public dissatisfaction, while Americans largely perceived U.S. global influence as weakening. That falls well short of the predicted “booming” economy, soaring influence, and broadly “great year,” so the prediction is best judged as wrong.