Disney’s underlying business had some strong spots in 2022, but its share price and overall market performance were notably poor, contradicting the “big corporate winner” / “undervalued with a huge surge” prediction.

On the business side:

• Disney’s Parks, Experiences and Products division had a record fiscal year 2022 with about $28.7 billion in revenue, up 73% year over year, and overall management described 2022 as a “strong year” with record parks results and large subscriber growth across Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ (total direct-to-consumer subscriptions surpassing 235 million). (thedisneyblog.com)
• However, streaming still lost substantial money: Disney’s direct-to-consumer segment (including Disney+) recorded an operating loss of roughly $1.5 billion in fiscal 2022, reflecting heavy investment and pressuring profitability. (thedisneyblog.com)

On stock/valuation performance (the core of the prediction):

• By early January 2023, analyses of 2022 performance show Disney’s stock fell almost 44% for the year, making it one of the very worst performers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (fool.com)
• Other summaries of Dow performance similarly place Walt Disney among the lowest-returning Dow components over the 2022–2023 window, with returns around –42%. (statmuse.com)

The prediction was that Disney would be a big corporate winner for 2022, being undervalued and experiencing a huge surge leading to share-price/valuation outperformance. While parks and subscriber metrics improved, the company’s streaming losses and broader market concerns coincided with Disney becoming one of the Dow’s worst stock performers in 2022, not a winner or an outperformer. Given that the explicit thesis centered on a valuation/stock surge that did not materialize, this prediction is wrong.