ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Episodes / E61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more
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Friedberg @ 01:19:27Inconclusive
techscience
1) By the end of 2022, it will be possible (at least in some venues) to taste cell-based chicken meat, though it will be very expensive and not yet mass-market. 2) Within three years (by end of 2024), cell-based sushi products will be available for tasting. 3) Within 5–10 years (by 2027–2032), cell-based meat will be available at commercial scale, produced in labs without killing animals, and comparable in look and taste to conventional meat.
But there is a tremendous amount of money going into this area, and we will devise artificially produced meat that will not be made by killing an animal, but will be made in a lab that looks and tastes identical. ... Just give us a year over. ... You'll have a piece of sushi in three years. You will have. You will be able to go taste chicken next year. It'll be very, very expensive. Okay, but cell based meat will be available at a commercial scale within the next 5 to 10 years.View on YouTube
Explanation

  1. Cell-based chicken by end of 2022 – This clearly happened. Singapore’s food regulator approved Eat Just/GOOD Meat’s cultivated chicken in December 2020, and it was first sold to diners at restaurant 1880 soon after. By 2021–2022 it was being served in additional Singapore venues (restaurants, delivery, even a hawker stall), at prices well above conventional chicken and only in very limited quantities—exactly “possible to taste, very expensive, not mass-market.” (en.wikipedia.org)

  2. Cell-based sushi within three years (by end of 2024) – Also effectively met. Wildtype had working sushi-grade cultivated salmon years before 2022 and held public tasting events: a “momentous evening” at Olympia Oyster Bar in Portland to taste the “world’s first cell-based salmon,” with nigiri/roll preparations, and additional tasting-room events at its San Francisco pilot plant, which includes a dedicated sushi bar for visitors. (wildtypefoods.com) There are also documented public tastings such as a 2022 New York event where Wildtype invited members of the public (via newsletter) to a lab-grown salmon tasting. (reddit.com) These are exactly cell-based sushi products “available for tasting” by well before the 2024 deadline, even though full commercial restaurant/retail launch had to wait for U.S. FDA approval in 2025. (foodandwine.com)

  3. Commercial-scale, animal-free cell-based meat in 5–10 years (2027–2032) – This part cannot yet be evaluated. As of late 2025, cultivated meat and seafood are approved only in a few jurisdictions (e.g., GOOD Meat chicken in Singapore and the U.S., Vow’s quail products in Australia, Wildtype salmon in the U.S.), served in a tiny number of high-end venues and at very high costs; industry analyses still describe the sector as far from true commercial scale and not price-competitive with conventional meat. (en.wikipedia.org) Since the prediction window for this claim runs roughly through 2027–2032 and we are only in 2025, it’s too early to say whether it will ultimately prove right or wrong.

Because the short-term chicken and sushi milestones have been achieved but the long-term 5–10 year commercial-scale claim is still within its future window, the overall multi-part prediction must be rated “inconclusive” rather than fully right or wrong at this time.