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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Episodes / E61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more
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Sacks @ 01:05:27Right
politics
In 2022, the Republican Party will remain relatively united (with no major internal civil war), but in 2023, during the Republican presidential primary—especially if Donald Trump runs—significant internal conflict and turmoil (“all hell’s going to break loose”) will occur within the party.
Not not yet, because Trump isn't on the ballot in 2022. So I actually think the Republican Party is going to be surprisingly united in 2022. I think where the trouble might come in is when we have a Republican primary in 2023, and especially if Trump runs, then you know all hell's going to break loose.View on YouTube
Explanation

Sacks made a two-part, time-specific prediction.

  1. 2022 GOP relatively united, no major internal “civil war” yet
    Donald Trump himself was not on the ballot in 2022; his 2024 presidential campaign was only announced later on November 15, 2022, after the midterms. (en.wikipedia.org) During the 2022 cycle, national Republicans largely rallied around shared midterm themes (inflation, crime, border, opposition to Biden) and a unified House agenda branded as the “Commitment to America,” rolled out by Kevin McCarthy as the GOP’s midterm roadmap. (voz.us) While there were ongoing Trump–establishment tensions, there was no formal split or new party; the GOP ran a common national platform and did not experience the kind of full-on schism commentators were warning might be coming. Predictions of a looming Republican “civil war” over Trump and Ron DeSantis were framed as something on the horizon, not yet fully underway. (businessinsider.nl) This broadly matches Sacks’s claim that Republicans would be “surprisingly united” in 2022 because Trump wasn’t directly on the ballot.

  2. 2023 GOP primary with Trump running produces major internal conflict
    Trump did in fact run for president again, having formally launched his 2024 campaign in November 2022 and then competing in the 2023–24 Republican primaries. (en.wikipedia.org) By 2023 there was a crowded GOP field (notably Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley), and the contest quickly became acrimonious, with Trump repeatedly attacking DeSantis—including mocking him as “DeSanctimonious” and devoting extended riffs to criticizing him at 2023 campaign events in Iowa. (en.cibercuba.com) Commentators and party actors themselves increasingly described the situation in “civil war” terms, especially in Florida, where the state Democratic chair said Republicans had “completely imploded” and were engaged in a “civil war” between Trump and DeSantis factions. (floridianpress.com) National coverage likewise said Trump’s 2024 campaign announcement “deepened” what Democrats called “an all-out civil war engulfing the Republican party” after the 2022 results. (theguardian.com)

    Beyond the presidential primary, 2023 also saw unprecedented open warfare inside the House GOP: Republicans needed 15 ballots in January 2023 to elect Kevin McCarthy speaker because a bloc of hard-right Republicans refused to support him. (en.wikipedia.org) Then on October 3, 2023, eight Republicans joined Democrats to remove McCarthy as speaker—the first successful ouster of a sitting speaker in U.S. history—triggering weeks of chaotic infighting over his replacement. (en.wikipedia.org) This very public, historically unusual leadership meltdown inside the GOP majority fits well with the notion that “all hell” broke loose within the party once the 2024 nomination fight and Trump’s renewed candidacy dominated Republican politics.

Because both parts of the forecast line up with what actually happened—relative cohesion in 2022 followed by intense, multi-front Republican infighting in 2023 with Trump running—the prediction is best judged as right.