Evidence from 2022 shows that early‑stage startup equity/venture capital was not the best‑performing major asset class.

On the positive side of the ledger for 2022, multiple cross‑asset surveys and consultant reports identify commodities (and in some studies direct property) as the top‑performing major asset class, with commodities returning roughly +17–22% for the year while most other tracked asset classes (global equities, bonds, listed real estate, etc.) were negative. One 20‑year asset‑class study by Atchison found that in 2022 only commodities (+17%), direct property (+11%), and cash (~+1%) had positive returns; the other 12 asset classes were in the red, making commodities the top performer that year.(adviservoice.com.au) Another analysis based on Morningstar data likewise reports commodities as the best‑performing asset class in 2022, with a +22% return to November 30, 2022, far ahead of other major assets.(npifund.com) Broad equity and bond markets were clearly negative (e.g., US stocks about –19.5%, ex‑US stocks –16%, US aggregate bonds –13.4%).(reddit.com)

By contrast, venture capital—and specifically early‑stage VC—had a poor year in 2022. Cambridge Associates notes that the US Venture Capital Index had a double‑digit negative return in the first half of 2022 and that 2024’s gains “rebounded … following two years of negative returns in 2022 and 2023,” confirming that full‑year 2022 VC performance was negative overall.(nlholdinggmbh.com)(cambridgeassociates.com) Their first‑half 2022 commentary further shows that all major VC sectors except industrials posted double‑digit negative returns (e.g., IT –13.3%, financials –28.4%), implying broad markdowns in venture portfolios that include early‑stage deals.(cambridgeassociates.com) A review by American Century likewise states that VC fund returns “collapsed in 2022” and funds have posted six straight quarters of losses starting in early 2022, underscoring that VC was not a winning asset class that year.(americancentury.com) PitchBook‑based reporting from Fortune and TechCrunch adds that 2022 saw the first decline in early‑stage valuations in 10 quarters, with early‑stage pre‑money medians falling and deal activity slowing—hardly characteristics of the top‑performing asset class.(fortune.com)(techcrunch.com)

Putting this together: commodities and, in some local studies, direct property clearly outran other major asset classes in 2022, while venture capital—including early‑stage funds—had negative returns and falling valuations. No reputable cross‑asset comparison ranks early‑stage startup equity as the best‑performing asset class in 2022; the available data show the opposite. Therefore, Jason’s prediction that early‑stage startup equity would be the best‑performing asset class of 2022 was wrong.