The prediction was that in 2022 there was a meaningful (though low‑probability) chance of a major natural catastrophe large enough to significantly impact markets and/or global affairs. That outcome did in fact occur.

In mid‑2022, Pakistan suffered catastrophic monsoon floods that affected about 33 million people, destroyed or damaged millions of homes, wiped out large areas of cropland and infrastructure, and caused estimated direct damage and economic losses in the tens of billions of US dollars (Pakistan government/UNDP/World Bank assessments range from about $15–40 billion).(britannica.com)

The World Bank explicitly linked these catastrophic floods to a sharp slowdown in Pakistan’s economic growth, higher inflation, and increased poverty, describing how the floods materially worsened the country’s macroeconomic outlook. That is a clear, documented impact on markets and the national economy.(worldbank.org)

The disaster also had significant global‑affairs consequences: it triggered large‑scale international relief and reconstruction pledges (roughly $10 billion in climate‑related support), and it became a central example in global climate‑justice and security debates, with analysts warning that the flooding could exacerbate instability with implications for regional and global security.(britannica.com)

Since a major natural catastrophe in 2022 did occur and it clearly affected both markets (Pakistan’s economy and financial conditions) and global affairs (aid, climate diplomacy, and security discussions), the realized outcome aligns with Friedberg’s prediction.