In 2022 there was a clear onset and escalation of major interstate and proxy-style conflict, matching Friedberg’s prediction in both timing and geography.

1. Ukraine became a full‑scale war with global implications in early 2022.

   • On 24 February 2022, Russia launched a full‑scale invasion of Ukraine, described as the biggest attack on a European country and the first full‑scale war in Europe since World War II. 【(en.wikipedia.org)
   • The conflict rapidly internationalized: by mid‑2025, Ukraine had received well over $150 billion in direct military aid and hundreds of billions in total assistance from the U.S. and other allies, with Western stockpiles and industrial bases repurposed to sustain the war 【(en.wikipedia.org). This level of foreign arming and support is widely analyzed as turning the war into a de facto proxy conflict between Russia and a U.S./NATO‑aligned coalition, exactly the type of “proxy wars” and “great global conflict” dynamic Friedberg described.

2. Tensions around Taiwan also escalated materially in 2022.

   • In August 2022, after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, China launched unprecedented live‑fire military drills in six zones encircling the island, including missile tests and frequent incursions of ships and aircraft across the Taiwan Strait median line. 【(cnbc.com)
   • Taiwan and multiple international actors condemned these exercises as highly destabilizing and akin to a partial blockade, prompting fears of a new Taiwan Strait crisis 【(theguardian.com).

3. The “beginning of a period” part is borne out by persistence.

   • The large‑scale Russo‑Ukrainian war that began in 2022 has continued for years, with world leaders still marking its anniversaries in Kyiv and debating long‑term support and European security architecture in 2025 【(lemonde.fr). This supports Friedberg’s framing that 2022 would mark the start of a longer era of elevated great‑power conflict rather than a brief flare‑up.

Given that in 2022 there was (a) the outbreak of the largest European war since WWII, heavily shaped by global proxy dynamics, and (b) a sharp military escalation around Taiwan, Friedberg’s prediction that 2022 would see “the start of great global conflict” with “proxy wars… maybe something in the Ukraine, maybe something related to Taiwan” is well aligned with what actually happened.