As of November 30, 2025, there is no commercial fusion power plant connected to an electrical grid and selling power. The major advances since 2021 have been scientific, not commercial:

• The National Ignition Facility (NIF) achieved fusion ignition in December 2022, producing more energy from the fusion reaction (3.15 MJ) than was delivered to the target by the laser (2.05 MJ), and has since repeated and improved on this in multiple shots. However, the facility still consumes vastly more energy overall than it produces and is a research experiment, not a power plant. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Private fusion companies are planning first-of-a-kind commercial plants, but none are operating yet. Commonwealth Fusion Systems plans a grid-scale plant in Virginia targeting the early 2030s for electricity production. (reuters.com) Helion is aiming for a first reactor around 2028, but this remains an ambitious target with permitting and technical risks and no operating plant today. (axios.com)

Friedberg’s normalized prediction is that commercially viable, net-positive fusion power "online" is still roughly 10–15 years away as of 2021, i.e., around 2031–2036. That time window has not arrived yet; we are only four years past the prediction date.

• We do not yet have commercial fusion power, so the prediction hasn’t been falsified.
• At the same time, we cannot know whether fusion will, in fact, become commercially viable between 2031 and 2036; the crucial years are still in the future.

Because the forecasted window (2031–2036) has not yet occurred, the correctness of the prediction cannot presently be determined. Therefore, the appropriate evaluation is "inconclusive" (too early to tell).