ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Sacks @ 00:51:29Wrong
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In the November 2022 elections, there will be a Republican “red wave” in which Democratic governors who maintain strict COVID restrictions will lose their offices; among such strict Democratic governors, Gavin Newsom will likely be the only one re‑elected or remaining in office.
But but I don't believe this is sustainable. I think eventually these governors who are holding on to their power and their restrictions are going to lose in 2022, the ones who haven't given it up are going to are going to basically fall to a red wave in November of 22. I think Newsom might be the only one left standing.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction had two key components, and both failed:

  1. A national Republican “red wave” in November 2022. In the 2022 U.S. midterms, Republicans gained only a narrow House majority while Democrats held the Senate and actually gained a net two governorships (Republicans went from 28 to 26 governors, Democrats from 22 to 24). Analyses across the political spectrum noted that the widely expected “red wave” did not materialize. This directly contradicts the forecast of a sweeping red wave.

  2. Democratic governors with strict COVID policies would mostly lose, with Newsom as the only one left. In the 2022 gubernatorial elections, numerous high‑profile Democratic incumbents who had imposed relatively strict COVID measures were re‑elected, often comfortably: Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan, Jared Polis in Colorado, J.B. Pritzker in Illinois, Tony Evers in Wisconsin, Kathy Hochul in New York, and Michelle Lujan Grisham in New Mexico all won new terms. Gavin Newsom was re‑elected in California, but he was far from the “only one left standing.” The overall gubernatorial map shifted slightly toward Democrats rather than against them.

Because there was no broad red wave and most prominent Democratic governors with strong COVID restrictions retained office, the prediction is wrong.