The prediction is framed over “the next decade” after 2021 (i.e., roughly 2021–2031). As of late 2025, we are only ~4 years into that window, so it is too early to say definitively whether RNA-based technologies will have “transformed how medicine is delivered” across a wide range of diseases by 2031.

What we can say so far:

• Clear progress and early impact:

  • mRNA vaccines went from COVID-19 use to broader infectious-disease applications. Moderna’s mRNA RSV vaccine (mRESVIA) became the first non‑COVID mRNA vaccine approved in the U.S. and EU in 2024 and has since had its indication expanded (e.g., adults ≥60 and at‑risk adults 18–59). (investors.modernatx.com)
  • mRNA cancer vaccines are showing strong Phase 2 results. Moderna and Merck’s individualized neoantigen therapy mRNA‑4157 (V940) combined with Keytruda reduced recurrence or death by ~44–49% in high‑risk melanoma and is now in Phase 3 and being tested in other cancers, but it is not yet an approved standard treatment. (merck.com)

• Genetic and rare diseases: promising but still early:

  • The first CRISPR gene‑editing therapy (Casgevy/exa‑cel) has been approved for sickle cell disease and beta‑thalassemia, offering functional cures for some patients. This is a major step for gene editing, but use is still limited to highly selected patients and complex centers. (news.vrtx.com)
  • In 2025, researchers reported the first in vivo mRNA‑based personalized CRISPR therapy (mRNA-encoded base editor in lipid nanoparticles) for an infant with a lethal urea cycle disorder—an N-of‑1, proof‑of‑concept treatment showing what might be possible, but not yet a scalable modality. (idtdna.com)
  • RNA interference (siRNA) and related RNA drugs are steadily entering practice (e.g., patisiran and vutrisiran for hereditary transthyretin amyloidosis, inclisiran for LDL lowering, plozasiran for familial chylomicronemia, all approved or expanded by 2025). (en.wikipedia.org) Large pharma is making multi‑billion‑dollar bets on RNA platforms (e.g., Novartis’s ~$12B acquisition of Avidity Biosciences for RNA therapeutics for neuromuscular diseases, with launches anticipated before 2030), indicating expectations that RNA will become a major modality later this decade, but that is still prospective. (novartis.com)

• Has it already transformed medicine broadly by 2025?

  • mRNA has clearly transformed vaccine development (COVID-19 and RSV) and is reshaping parts of infectious-disease prevention.
  • For cancer and most genetic diseases, RNA-based approaches remain largely in clinical trials, early commercial use, or ultra‑rare/experimental settings, not yet a dominant, routine modality across a “wide range” of conditions.

Given that:

• The prediction’s end date (around 2031) has not arrived, and
• Current evidence shows strong momentum but not yet the broad, system‑wide transformation across cancers and genetic diseases that the quote envisions,

the best judgment at this time is “inconclusive (too early)”. The trajectory so far is consistent with Friedberg’s thesis, but it is impossible in 2025 to say with confidence that RNA technologies will achieve the full transformative impact he predicted by the end of the decade.